ASML Lifts 2026 Outlook as AI Chip Demand Keeps Orders Firm
ASML Lifts 2026 Outlook as AI Chip Demand Keeps Orders Firm
ASML raised its 2026 sales guidance after reporting first-quarter results that came in ahead of expectations, a sign that spending tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure is still supporting demand for the high-end manufacturing equipment used to produce advanced semiconductors.
The Dutch lithography leader reported first-quarter net sales of €8.8 billion, above consensus expectations of €8.5 billion, and net profit of €2.8 billion versus €2.5 billion expected. The result fell within the company’s prior sales guidance range of €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion.
On the back of the quarter, ASML increased its 2026 net sales outlook to €36 billion to €40 billion, up from a prior range of €34 billion to €39 billion. Management pointed to a strengthening industry growth backdrop, with AI-related investment driving demand for chips and customers accelerating capacity expansion plans supported by longer-term supply commitments.
A bellwether for the next phase of chip capacity
That confidence appears to be intact. AI workloads are expanding rapidly across data centers, networking, and high-performance computing, and chip buyers continue to prioritize the hardware required to train and run large-scale models. With demand still described as running ahead of supply, customers are preparing for higher output needs in 2026 and beyond.
Memory spending stands out
One of the clearest signals in ASML’s latest quarter was where tool sales are being deployed. ASML said 51% of net sales from new systems in the first quarter were tied to memory customers, up from 30% in the previous quarter. The shift reflects the market’s ongoing memory shortage and the role memory plays in AI systems, where large, high-bandwidth configurations are required to feed compute clusters efficiently.
Regional mix also highlights where investment is accelerating. Customers in South Korea accounted for 45% of sales, while those in Taiwan accounted for 23%. The tilt toward South Korea aligns with the expectation that major memory producers will expand capacity to meet demand from AI data centers, which would require more advanced manufacturing tools.
China headwinds remain a constraint
Even as AI-driven demand supports the broader outlook, ASML continues to face restrictions in China. Export controls prevent the company from shipping its most advanced machines to the market, limiting upside in a region that has historically been a significant market for semiconductor equipment.
China’s share of system sales fell to 19% of overall sales in the first quarter, down from 36% in the prior quarter. The shift underscores how policy constraints are reshaping ASML’s geographic revenue mix. U.S. legislative proposals could further tighten restrictions by extending them to less advanced tools as well, though any such measures would still need to move through the legislative process.
Bottom line
ASML’s raised 2026 guidance suggests that AI infrastructure spending is translating into sustained equipment demand, especially in memory-related capacity expansion. The main question for investors is how far the upcycle can run as customers push to close the supply gap, and how much potential demand is constrained by export policy limits in China.
